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Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Wolfsburg — Bundesliga 2018

Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
2/2/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Round 20Deutsche Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Eintracht Frankfurt54%
×Draw23%
VfL Wolfsburg23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Frankfurt
1.86
VfL Wolfsburg
1.15

Eintracht Frankfurt creates 62% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

creates per match

Eintracht Frankfurt
1.64
VfL Wolfsburg
1.19

allows per match

Eintracht Frankfurt
1.11
VfL Wolfsburg
2.09

finishing

Eintracht Frankfurt+0.24scores more
VfL Wolfsburg+0.28scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankfurt ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankfurt or draw
77%
Eintracht Frankfurt or VfL Wolfsburg
77%
Draw or VfL Wolfsburg
46%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+
31%
VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals
84%
Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals
28%
VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
68%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
32%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)
70%
VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankfurt at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.09 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.64 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.86

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.19 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eintracht Frankfurt scores more
54%
level
23%
VfL Wolfsburg scores more
23%

Eintracht Frankfurt at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg

Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt am Main.