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Eintracht Frankfurt vs Lazio — UEFA Europa League 2026

Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Lazio
Lazio
10/4/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2Commerzbank-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Eintracht Frankfurt60%
×Draw22%
Lazio18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Frankfurt
1.96
Lazio
0.97

Eintracht Frankfurt creates 102% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Eintracht Frankfurt
2.06
Lazio
0.93

allows per match

Eintracht Frankfurt
1.00
Lazio
1.86

finishing

Eintracht Frankfurt+0.00on par
Lazio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankfurt ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankfurt or draw
82%
Eintracht Frankfurt or Lazio
78%
Draw or Lazio
40%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+
36%
Lazio wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals
86%
Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals
58%
Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals
31%
Lazio 1+ goals
62%
Lazio 2+ goals
25%
Lazio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)
77%
Lazio (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankfurt at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Lazio away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 2.06 + Lazio defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.96

Lazio attack 0.93 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Eintracht Frankfurt scores more
60%
level
22%
Lazio scores more
18%

Eintracht Frankfurt at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Eintracht Frankfurt 4–1 Lazio

Eintracht Frankfurt beat Lazio 4-1 in UEFA Europa League on October 4, 2018.

The match was played at Commerzbank-Arena in Frankfurt.