Eintracht Frankf U19 3–3 RW Oberhausen U19

Eintracht Frankf U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

RW Oberhausen U19

A. Temur 83'

D. Maqkaj 61'

M. Mladenovic 51' (pen)

O. Hot 29'

J. Symalla 13'

K. Yalcin 6' (pen)

5/20/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 3Stadion am Riederwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Eintracht Frankf U1958%

×Draw20%

RW Oberhausen U1922%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Frankf U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.31

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.21

RW Oberhausen U19

1.31

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 49 away

2.34

creates per match

1.20

1.42

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.34

RW Oberhausen U19

1.20

allows per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.42

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankf U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankf U19 or draw

78%

Eintracht Frankf U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

80%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

42%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

35%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

89%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

65%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

38%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

73%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

38%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

72%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankf U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.42 · 74 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.34 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.21

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.20 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

58%

level

20%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

22%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

K. YalcinPenalty

13'

J. Symalla

29'

O. Hot

51'

M. MladenovicPenalty

56'

A. Temur← T. Flick

56'

T. Karacaga← M. Rottensteiner

61'

66'

66'

75'

80'

83'

85'

Daniel Raul← F. Geißler

85'

J. Mulamba← J. Symalla

Eintracht

RW

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: H. Rasche

56'▲A. Temur←▼T. Flick

56'▲T. Karacaga←▼M. Rottensteiner

66'▲F. Derick←▼M. Afşar

66'▲J. Gore←▼L. Kleiner

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

TemurKaracagaDerickGoreHellmann

Manager: D. Balk

75'▲M. Matthes←▼A. Terzi

80'▲L. Twumasi←▼T. Böhm

85'▲Daniel Raul←▼F. Geißler

85'▲J. Mulamba←▼J. Symalla

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

MatthesTwumasiRaulMulambaLenuweit