Eintracht Frankf U19 3–2 Kickers Offenbach U19

Eintracht Frankf U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Kickers Offenbach U19

J. Molenaar 45', 4'

Jabez Maleko 19'

E. Kuhinja 36', 28'

2/7/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16PSD Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Eintracht Frankf U1968%

×Draw17%

Kickers Offenbach U1915%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Frankf U19Expected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.20

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.70

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.20

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 125% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 47 away

2.34

creates per match

0.98

1.42

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.34

Kickers Offenbach U19

0.98

allows per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.42

Kickers Offenbach U19

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankf U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankf U19 or draw

85%

Eintracht Frankf U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19

83%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19

32%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

47%

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

93%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

75%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

50%

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

70%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

34%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankf U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.42 · 74 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.34 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.70

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

68%

level

17%

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

15%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

19'

28'

36'

45'

50'

T. Sausen← R. Ferreira

56'

M. Bell← V. Giesel

63'

J. Engel← D. Siebert

64'

L. Fahrnberger← L. Weingärtner

70'

T. Littmann← Jabez Maleko

78'

N. Meyer← E. Kuhinja

80'

M. Sentürk← L. Dahl

82'

F. Zorn← A. Çakar

Eintracht

Kickers

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Maleko

⚽2

Molenaar

Manager: A. Ibertsberger

63'▲J. Engel←▼D. Siebert

64'▲L. Fahrnberger←▼L. Weingärtner

70'▲T. Littmann←▼Jabez Maleko

82'▲F. Zorn←▼A. Çakar

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

EngelFahrnbergerLittmannZornGirelliKomljenovićJongmin

Manager: R. Trabert

50'▲T. Sausen←▼R. Ferreira

56'▲M. Bell←▼V. Giesel

78'▲N. Meyer←▼E. Kuhinja

80'▲M. Sentürk←▼L. Dahl

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

SausenBellMeyerSentürkEmbayeKerberPuth

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Frankf U19 3–2 Kickers Offenbach U19

Eintracht Frankf U19 beat Kickers Offenbach U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 7, 2020.

Goals: J. Molenaar (4', 45'), Jabez Maleko (19'), E. Kuhinja (28', 36').

The match was played at PSD Bank Arena in Frankfurt am Main.

Eintracht Frankf U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Frankf U19 3–2 Kickers Offenbach U19