Eintracht Frankf U19 2–2 Kaiserslautern U19

Eintracht Frankf U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kaiserslautern U19

Jabez Maleko 84' (pen)

Seo Jongmin 12'

M. Yıldız 63' (pen)

M. Neukirch 45'

9/28/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 7Stadion am Riederwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Eintracht Frankf U1955%

×Draw20%

Kaiserslautern U1925%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Frankf U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.52

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.30

Kaiserslautern U19

1.52

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 68 away

2.34

creates per match

1.62

1.42

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.34

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.42

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankf U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankf U19 or draw

75%

Eintracht Frankf U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

80%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

45%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

34%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

90%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

67%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

40%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

78%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

45%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankf U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.42 · 74 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.34 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.30

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

55%

level

20%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

25%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Seo Jongmin

45'

M. Neukirch

46'

P. Finger← Seo Jongmin

61'

G. Girelli← A. Çakar

63'

M. YıldızPenalty

69'

T. Littmann← J. Engel

70'

K. Dogan← N. Gibs

78'

F. Zorn← H. Bakırsu

79'

F. Reisinger← P. Bonianga

84'

Jabez MalekoPenalty

86'

M. Theobald← M. Mansfeld

90'

L. Lazar← T. Woiwod

Eintracht

Kaiserslautern

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Ibertsberger

46'▲P. Finger←▼Seo Jongmin

61'▲G. Girelli←▼A. Çakar

69'▲T. Littmann←▼J. Engel

78'▲F. Zorn←▼H. Bakırsu

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

FingerGirelliLittmannZornOestreicherHöllenPečar

Manager: M. Laping

70'▲K. Dogan←▼N. Gibs

79'▲F. Reisinger←▼P. Bonianga

86'▲M. Theobald←▼M. Mansfeld

90'▲L. Lazar←▼T. Woiwod

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

DoganReisingerTheobaldLazarKarakusGrenzMüsel