Eintracht Frankf U19 2–3 Ingolstadt U19

Eintracht Frankf U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ingolstadt U19

8/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 1Stadion am Riederwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Eintracht Frankf U1944%

×Draw21%

Ingolstadt U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Frankf U19Expected goals in this matchIngolstadt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.78

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.00

Ingolstadt U19

1.78

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 72 away

2.29

creates per match

2.13

1.43

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.29

Ingolstadt U19

2.13

allows per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.43

Ingolstadt U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankf U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankf U19 or draw

65%

Eintracht Frankf U19 or Ingolstadt U19

79%

Draw or Ingolstadt U19

56%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

24%

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

86%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

59%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

32%

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

83%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

53%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankf U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.29 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.13 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

44%

level

21%

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

35%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff