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Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
2/17/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 21Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig35%
×Draw25%
Holstein Kiel40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.37
Holstein Kiel
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 118 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.21
Holstein Kiel
1.58

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.39
Holstein Kiel
1.53

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw
60%
Eintracht Braunschweig or Holstein Kiel
75%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
65%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
16%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
75%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
40%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
16%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
77%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
43%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
47%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.53 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

Holstein Kiel attack 1.58 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
35%
level
25%
Holstein Kiel scores more
40%

Holstein Kiel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunschweig 2–3 Holstein Kiel

Holstein Kiel beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on February 17, 2023.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.