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Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
3/8/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 25Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig42%
×Draw26%
Hansa Rostock32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.39
Hansa Rostock
1.17

Eintracht Braunschweig creates 19% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.21
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.39
Hansa Rostock
1.57

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw
68%
Eintracht Braunschweig or Hansa Rostock
74%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
58%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
20%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
75%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
40%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
16%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
69%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
33%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
57%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
42%
level
26%
Hansa Rostock scores more
32%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock

Hansa Rostock beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.