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Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hannover 96
Hannover 96
4/14/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 29Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig37%
×Draw25%
Hannover 9638%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.37
Hannover 96
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 119 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.21
Hannover 96
1.40

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.39
Hannover 96
1.53

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par
Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Hannover 96 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw
62%
Eintracht Braunschweig or Hannover 96
75%
Draw or Hannover 96
63%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
17%
Hannover 96 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
75%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
40%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
16%
Hannover 96 1+ goals
75%
Hannover 96 2+ goals
41%
Hannover 96 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
49%
Hannover 96 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + Hannover 96 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hannover 96 attack 1.40 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
37%
level
25%
Hannover 96 scores more
38%

Hannover 96 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hannover 96 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96

Eintracht Braunschweig and Hannover 96 drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.