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Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
10/8/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 11Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig39%
×Draw25%
FC St. Pauli36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.46
FC St. Pauli
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 102 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.21
FC St. Pauli
1.37

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.39
FC St. Pauli
1.72

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par
FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

FC St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw
64%
Eintracht Braunschweig or FC St. Pauli
75%
Draw or FC St. Pauli
61%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
19%
FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
77%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
43%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
18%
FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
75%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
40%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
52%
FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

FC St. Pauli attack 1.37 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
39%
level
25%
FC St. Pauli scores more
36%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunschweig 2–1 FC St. Pauli

Eintracht Braunschweig beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.