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Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC Schalke 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
1/18/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 18Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig36%
×Draw26%
FC Schalke 0439%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.34
FC Schalke 04
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.21
FC Schalke 04
1.41

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.39
FC Schalke 04
1.47

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par
FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

FC Schalke 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw
61%
Eintracht Braunschweig or FC Schalke 04
74%
Draw or FC Schalke 04
64%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
16%
FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
74%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
39%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
15%
FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
75%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
41%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
48%
FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
36%
level
26%
FC Schalke 04 scores more
39%

FC Schalke 04 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunschweig 0–0 FC Schalke 04

Eintracht Braunschweig and FC Schalke 04 drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.