Eintracht Braunschweig 4–2 Energie Cottbus

Eintracht Braunschweig

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Energie Cottbus

J. Gomez 79'

R. Philippe 72', 40'

M. Rittmuller 16'

E. Engelhardt 67'

D. Pelivan 57'

1/11/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Rheingoldarena - artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig29%

×Draw20%

Energie Cottbus51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BraunschweigExpected goals in this matchEnergie Cottbus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.30

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.70

Energie Cottbus

2.30

Energie Cottbus creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

3.60

1.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

2.00

Energie Cottbus

3.60

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.00

Energie Cottbus

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Energie Cottbus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Energie Cottbus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw

49%

Eintracht Braunschweig or Energie Cottbus

80%

Draw or Energie Cottbus

71%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

14%

Energie Cottbus wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

82%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

51%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

24%

Energie Cottbus 1+ goals

90%

Energie Cottbus 2+ goals

67%

Energie Cottbus 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

36%

Energie Cottbus (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Energie Cottbus away — creates 3.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 2.00 + Energie Cottbus defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Energie Cottbus attack 3.60 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

29%

level

20%

Energie Cottbus scores more

51%

Energie Cottbus at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Energie Cottbus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

40'

57'

67'

72'

79'

Eintracht

Energie

Manager: Heiner Backhaus

Manager: Claus-Dieter Wollitz