Eintracht Braunschweig 2–1 Altglienicke

Eintracht Braunschweig

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Altglienicke

1/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig36%

×Draw22%

Altglienicke42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BraunschweigExpected goals in this matchAltglienicke

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.89

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.75

Altglienicke

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

2.00

creates per match

2.78

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

2.00

Altglienicke

2.78

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.00

Altglienicke

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Altglienicke+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Altglienicke →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw

58%

Eintracht Braunschweig or Altglienicke

78%

Draw or Altglienicke

64%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

18%

Altglienicke wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

83%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

52%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

25%

Altglienicke 1+ goals

85%

Altglienicke 2+ goals

56%

Altglienicke 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

46%

Altglienicke (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Altglienicke away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 2.00 + Altglienicke defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Altglienicke attack 2.78 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

36%

level

22%

Altglienicke scores more

42%

Altglienicke at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Altglienicke will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Eintracht

Altglienicke

Manager: Heiner Backhaus

Manager: Karsten Heine