Eintracht Braunsch U19 3–3 Werder Bremen U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Werder Bremen U19

J. Strauß 75'

A. Aksac 30'

J. Gille 18'

P. M'Bock 87'

P. Čović 38' (pen)

L. Baum 14'

8/10/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2Stadion NLZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1933%

×Draw20%

Werder Bremen U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Braunsch U19Expected goals in this matchWerder Bremen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.35

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.98

Werder Bremen U19

2.35

Werder Bremen U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 72 away

2.07

creates per match

2.24

2.45

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.07

Werder Bremen U19

2.24

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.45

Werder Bremen U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw

53%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or Werder Bremen U19

80%

Draw or Werder Bremen U19

67%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

18%

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

86%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

59%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

31%

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

90%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

68%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.07, concedes 2.45 · 44 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.90 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.07 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.98

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.24 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

33%

level

20%

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

47%

Werder Bremen U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

L. Baum

18'

J. Gille

30'

A. Aksac

38'

P. ČovićPenalty

56'

J. Strauß← A. Aksac

62'

Karim Hassanin← J. Gille

66'

B. Coskun← J. Joas

66'

P. M'Bock← S. Musah

68'

J. Lindhorst← P. Freiberg

75'

J. Strauß

80'

A. Gega← L. Marheineke

80'

B. Fuchs← R. Ziegele

87'

P. M'Bock

Eintracht

Werder

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gille

▼

Marheinek

⚽

▼

Aksac

Redecker

Manager: C. Menzel

56'▲J. Strauß←▼A. Aksac

62'▲Karim Hassanin←▼J. Gille

80'▲A. Gega←▼L. Marheineke

80'▲B. Fuchs←▼R. Ziegele

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

StraußHassaninGegaFuchsPetersHounkpatiWeisheit

Manager: C. Makiadi

66'▲B. Coskun←▼J. Joas

66'▲P. M'Bock←▼S. Musah

68'▲J. Lindhorst←▼P. Freiberg

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

CoskunM'BockLindhorstHathaway

Match Recap: Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Werder Bremen U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19 and Werder Bremen U19 drew 3-3 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2024.

Goals: L. Baum (14'), J. Gille (18'), A. Aksac (30'), P. Čović (38' pen), J. Strauß (75'), P. M'Bock (87').

The match was played at Stadion NLZ in Braunschweig.

Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Werder Bremen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Werder Bremen U19