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Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Eintracht Braunsch U19
Eintracht Braunsch U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Holstein Kiel U19
Holstein Kiel U19
9/27/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 8Stadion NLZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1947%
×Draw20%
Holstein Kiel U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunsch U19
2.42
Holstein Kiel U19
2.06

Eintracht Braunsch U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 61 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19
2.13
Holstein Kiel U19
1.61

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19
2.50
Holstein Kiel U19
2.70

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw
66%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 or Holstein Kiel U19
80%
Draw or Holstein Kiel U19
53%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+
28%
Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals
91%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals
69%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals
43%
Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals
87%
Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals
61%
Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.13 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.42

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.61 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more
47%
level
20%
Holstein Kiel U19 scores more
34%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eintracht Braunsch U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Eintracht
Holstein
C. Menzel
Manager: C. Menzel
J. Kaps
Manager: J. Kaps

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunsch U19 1–3 Holstein Kiel U19

Holstein Kiel U19 beat Eintracht Braunsch U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion NLZ in Braunschweig.