Eintracht Braunsch U19 1–4 Hamburger SV U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Hamburger SV U19

P. Pfeiffer 50' (OG)

O. Heil 80'

J. Ulbricht 75', 61'

A. Opoku 21'

4/14/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 23Sportpark Kennel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1934%

×Draw20%

Hamburger SV U1946%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Braunsch U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

2.30

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.97

Hamburger SV U19

2.30

Hamburger SV U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 79 away

2.13

creates per match

2.10

2.50

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.13

Hamburger SV U19

2.10

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.50

Hamburger SV U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw

54%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or Hamburger SV U19

80%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

66%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

18%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

86%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

58%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

31%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

90%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

67%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.81 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.13 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.97

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.10 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

34%

level

20%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

46%

Hamburger SV U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

A. Opoku

50'

P. PfeifferOwn goal

58'

61'

70'

75'

78'

T. Fagerström← J. Ulbricht

80'

O. Heil

81'

L. Pinckert← T. Knost

82'

F. Went← M. Franke

82'

M. Erdmann← S. Abifade

86'

M. Berse← J. Fiedler

86'

A. Seitz← M. Drawz

Eintracht

Hamburger

🥅

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Eickel

58'▲T. Heike←▼T. Töpken

82'▲F. Went←▼M. Franke

82'▲M. Erdmann←▼S. Abifade

86'▲M. Berse←▼J. Fiedler

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

HeikeWentErdmannBerseAkyüzBarryBirjukov

Manager: D. Petrowsky

70'▲O. Heil←▼E. Krasniqi

78'▲T. Fagerström←▼J. Ulbricht

81'▲L. Pinckert←▼T. Knost

86'▲A. Seitz←▼M. Drawz

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

HeilFagerströmPinckertSeitzClasenDavidWohlers

Match Recap: Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Hamburger SV U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Eintracht Braunsch U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 14, 2018.

Goals: A. Opoku (21'), P. Pfeiffer (50' o.g.), J. Ulbricht (61', 75'), O. Heil (80').

The match was played at Sportpark Kennel in Braunschweig.

Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Hamburger SV U19