Eintracht Braunsch U19 7–1 Chemnitzer FC U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Chemnitzer FC U19

J. Funke 78'

H. Bartels 69'

F. Vy-Ngoc 55'

T. Heike 31', 27', 20'

M. Franke 19'

N. Ott 43'

5/5/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 26Sportpark Kennel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1949%

×Draw19%

Chemnitzer FC U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Braunsch U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.94

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.46

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.94

Eintracht Braunsch U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 52 away

2.13

creates per match

1.38

2.50

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.13

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.38

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.50

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw

69%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

81%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

51%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

30%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

91%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

70%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

44%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

86%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

58%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.13 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.46

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.38 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

49%

level

19%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

31%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eintracht Braunsch U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

20'

27'

31'

32'

43'

46'

55'

69'

71'

N. Kosanić← T. Töpken

76'

H. Mittelstädt← H. Bartels

78'

J. Funke

84'

P. Sovago← L. Gümpel

86'

F. Went← M. Franke

Eintracht

Chemnitzer

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Bartels

▼

Töpken

⚽3

Heike

Manager: S. Eickel

71'▲N. Kosanić←▼T. Töpken

76'▲H. Mittelstädt←▼H. Bartels

86'▲F. Went←▼M. Franke

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

KosanićMittelstädtWentAkyüzKonertSiemer

Manager: K. Jendrossek

32'▲B. Trinks←▼M. Molnar

46'▲M. Grätz←▼M. Kreckel

84'▲P. Sovago←▼L. Gümpel

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

TrinksGrätzSovagoSejdiHiemann

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunsch U19 7–1 Chemnitzer FC U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 7-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 5, 2018.

Goals: M. Franke (19'), T. Heike (20', 27', 31'), N. Ott (43'), F. Vy-Ngoc (55'), H. Bartels (69'), J. Funke (78').

The match was played at Sportpark Kennel in Braunschweig.

Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunsch U19 7–1 Chemnitzer FC U19