Eintracht Braunsch U19 3–4 Bochum U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19

FT

3 – 4

HT: 3 – 1

Bochum U19

10/26/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 10Stadion NLZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1931%

×Draw20%

Bochum U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Braunsch U19Expected goals in this matchBochum U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

2.31

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.80

Bochum U19

2.31

Bochum U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 67 away

2.08

creates per match

2.13

2.49

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.08

Bochum U19

2.13

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.49

Bochum U19

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw

51%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or Bochum U19

80%

Draw or Bochum U19

69%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

15%

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

83%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

54%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

27%

Bochum U19 1+ goals

90%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

67%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.49 · 39 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.08 + Bochum U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bochum U19 attack 2.13 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

31%

level

20%

Bochum U19 scores more

49%

Bochum U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff