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Eintracht Bamberg vs Jahn Regensburg II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
Preview
12:00
Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
8/15/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5
57%
Eintracht Bamberg
model favours
57%21%22%

Eintracht Bamberg have won 4 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg57%
×Draw21%
Jahn Regensburg II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
2.05
Jahn Regensburg II
1.19

Eintracht Bamberg creates 72% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.21
Jahn Regensburg II
1.46

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
0.91
Jahn Regensburg II
1.90

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
78%
Eintracht Bamberg or Jahn Regensburg II
79%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg II
43%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
34%
Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
87%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
61%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
33%
Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
70%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
33%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
72%
Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.21 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.05

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.46 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
57%
level
21%
Jahn Regensburg II scores more
22%

Eintracht Bamberg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Eintracht Bamberg raise their game against the top half — 56% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bamberg
LWDL
II
DLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Bamberg vs Jahn Regensburg II — Match Preview

Eintracht Bamberg face Jahn Regensburg II on August 15, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.