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Eintracht Bamberg vs Geesdorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Geesdorf
Geesdorf
P. Hack 85'
J. Gebhart 74'
F. Reck 9'
T. Strasser 8'
10/15/2022Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15Sportanlage Dörfleins Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg81%
×Draw12%
Geesdorf7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
2.98
Geesdorf
0.75

Eintracht Bamberg creates 297% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.26
Geesdorf
0.59

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
0.91
Geesdorf
3.71

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
Geesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Geesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
93%
Eintracht Bamberg or Geesdorf
88%
Draw or Geesdorf
19%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
62%
Geesdorf wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
95%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
79%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
56%
Geesdorf 1+ goals
53%
Geesdorf 2+ goals
17%
Geesdorf 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
92%
Geesdorf (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Geesdorf away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.26 + Geesdorf defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.98

Geesdorf attack 0.59 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
81%
level
12%
Geesdorf scores more
7%

Eintracht Bamberg at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
T. Strasser
9'
F. Reck
74'
J. Gebhart
85'
P. Hack

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eintracht Bamberg 4–0 Geesdorf

Eintracht Bamberg beat Geesdorf 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 15, 2022.

Goals: T. Strasser (8'), F. Reck (9'), J. Gebhart (74'), P. Hack (85').

The match was played at Sportanlage Dörfleins Platz 1 in Hallstadt.