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Eintracht Bamberg vs Buchbach — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Buchbach
Buchbach
8/19/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 5Fuchs-Park-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg35%
×Draw24%
Buchbach40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
1.45
Buchbach
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
1.12
Buchbach
1.06

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.06
Buchbach
1.77

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
Buchbach+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Buchbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
60%
Eintracht Bamberg or Buchbach
76%
Draw or Buchbach
65%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
17%
Buchbach wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
77%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
42%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
18%
Buchbach 1+ goals
79%
Buchbach 2+ goals
46%
Buchbach 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
47%
Buchbach (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Buchbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.77 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.12 + Buchbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Buchbach attack 1.06 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
35%
level
24%
Buchbach scores more
40%

Buchbach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Buchbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Bamberg vs Buchbach

Eintracht Bamberg beat Buchbach 2-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Fuchs-Park-Stadion in Bamberg.