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Eintracht Bamberg vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
4/11/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 29Fuchs-Park-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg59%
×Draw22%
ATSV Erlangen20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
1.95
ATSV Erlangen
1.03

Eintracht Bamberg creates 89% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.21
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
0.91
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
80%
Eintracht Bamberg or ATSV Erlangen
78%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
41%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
35%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
86%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
58%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
31%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
64%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
28%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
75%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.21 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.95

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
59%
level
22%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
20%

Eintracht Bamberg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eintracht Bamberg 1–1 ATSV Erlangen

Eintracht Bamberg and ATSV Erlangen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Fuchs-Park-Stadion in Bamberg.