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Einheit Wernigerode vs Wismut Gera — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wismut Gera
Wismut Gera
9/29/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 7Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Einheit Wernigerode54%
×Draw19%
Wismut Gera27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Einheit Wernigerode
2.50
Wismut Gera
1.76

Einheit Wernigerode creates 42% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Einheit Wernigerode
2.12
Wismut Gera
1.60

allows per match

Einheit Wernigerode
1.92
Wismut Gera
2.87

finishing

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par
Wismut Gera+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Wernigerode ↓

Wismut Gera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Einheit Wernigerode or draw
73%
Einheit Wernigerode or Wismut Gera
81%
Draw or Wismut Gera
46%

Winning margin

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
34%
Wismut Gera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
92%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
71%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
45%
Wismut Gera 1+ goals
83%
Wismut Gera 2+ goals
52%
Wismut Gera 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
66%
Wismut Gera (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Wernigerode at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.92 · 77 matches

Wismut Gera away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Wernigerode attack 2.12 + Wismut Gera defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.50

Wismut Gera attack 1.60 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Einheit Wernigerode scores more
54%
level
19%
Wismut Gera scores more
27%

Einheit Wernigerode at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Einheit Wernigerode vs Wismut Gera

Einheit Wernigerode and Wismut Gera drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße in Wernigerode.