Einheit Wernigerode 2–4 International Leipzig

Einheit Wernigerode

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

International Leipzig

5/25/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 29Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Einheit Wernigerode53%

×Draw20%

International Leipzig27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Einheit WernigerodeExpected goals in this matchInternational Leipzig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.64

Einheit Wernigerode

2.33

International Leipzig

1.64

Einheit Wernigerode creates 42% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 22 away

2.12

creates per match

1.36

1.92

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Einheit Wernigerode

2.12

International Leipzig

1.36

allows per match

Einheit Wernigerode

1.92

International Leipzig

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

International Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Wernigerode ↓

International Leipzig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Einheit Wernigerode or draw

73%

Einheit Wernigerode or International Leipzig

80%

Draw or International Leipzig

47%

Winning margin

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+

32%

International Leipzig wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals

90%

Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals

67%

Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals

41%

International Leipzig 1+ goals

81%

International Leipzig 2+ goals

49%

International Leipzig 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)

66%

International Leipzig (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Wernigerode at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.92 · 77 matches

International Leipzig away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Wernigerode attack 2.12 + International Leipzig defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.33

International Leipzig attack 1.36 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Einheit Wernigerode scores more

53%

level

20%

International Leipzig scores more

27%

Einheit Wernigerode at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff