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Einheit Wernigerode vs Carl Zeiss Jena II — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
FT
3 – 5
Carl Zeiss Jena II
Carl Zeiss Jena II
10/31/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 12Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Einheit Wernigerode42%
×Draw21%
Carl Zeiss Jena II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Einheit Wernigerode
1.99
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 22 away

creates per match

Einheit Wernigerode
2.12
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.77

allows per match

Einheit Wernigerode
1.92
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.86

finishing

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par
Carl Zeiss Jena II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Wernigerode ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Einheit Wernigerode or draw
64%
Einheit Wernigerode or Carl Zeiss Jena II
79%
Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena II
58%

Winning margin

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
23%
Carl Zeiss Jena II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
86%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
59%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
32%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 1+ goals
84%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 2+ goals
55%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
54%
Carl Zeiss Jena II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Wernigerode at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.92 · 77 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Wernigerode attack 2.12 + Carl Zeiss Jena II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.99

Carl Zeiss Jena II attack 1.77 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Einheit Wernigerode scores more
42%
level
21%
Carl Zeiss Jena II scores more
36%

Einheit Wernigerode at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Einheit Wernigerode 3–5 Carl Zeiss Jena II

Carl Zeiss Jena II beat Einheit Wernigerode 5-3 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße in Wernigerode.