Einheit Wernigerode 3–1 1. FC Merseburg

Einheit Wernigerode

FT

3 – 1

1. FC Merseburg

8/29/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 5Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Einheit Wernigerode69%

×Draw17%

1. FC Merseburg15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Einheit WernigerodeExpected goals in this match1. FC Merseburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.17

Einheit Wernigerode

2.69

1. FC Merseburg

1.17

Einheit Wernigerode creates 130% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 12 away

2.12

creates per match

0.42

1.92

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Einheit Wernigerode

2.12

1. FC Merseburg

0.42

allows per match

Einheit Wernigerode

1.92

1. FC Merseburg

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Wernigerode ↓

1. FC Merseburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Einheit Wernigerode or draw

85%

Einheit Wernigerode or 1. FC Merseburg

83%

Draw or 1. FC Merseburg

31%

Winning margin

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+

48%

1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals

93%

Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals

74%

Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals

49%

1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals

69%

1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals

33%

1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)

83%

1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Wernigerode at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.92 · 77 matches

1. FC Merseburg away — creates 0.42, concedes 3.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Wernigerode attack 2.12 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.69

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.42 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Einheit Wernigerode scores more

69%

level

17%

1. FC Merseburg scores more

15%

Einheit Wernigerode at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff