Einheit Rudolstadt 1–2 Wismut Gera: Result & Stats

Einheit Rudolstadt

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Wismut Gera

11/2/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 11Stadtisches Stadion im Heinepark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Einheit Rudolstadt54%

×Draw21%

Wismut Gera26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Einheit RudolstadtExpected goals in this matchWismut Gera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.47

Einheit Rudolstadt

2.19

Wismut Gera

1.47

Einheit Rudolstadt creates 49% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 15 away

1.51

creates per match

1.60

1.34

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.51

Wismut Gera

1.60

allows per match

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.34

Wismut Gera

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Wismut Gera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Rudolstadt ↓

Wismut Gera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Einheit Rudolstadt or draw

74%

Einheit Rudolstadt or Wismut Gera

79%

Draw or Wismut Gera

46%

Winning margin

Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+

32%

Wismut Gera wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals

89%

Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals

64%

Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals

37%

Wismut Gera 1+ goals

77%

Wismut Gera 2+ goals

43%

Wismut Gera 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)

68%

Wismut Gera (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Rudolstadt at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

Wismut Gera away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.51 + Wismut Gera defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.19

Wismut Gera attack 1.60 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Einheit Rudolstadt scores more

54%

level

21%

Wismut Gera scores more

26%

Einheit Rudolstadt at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Einheit Rudolstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff