Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Einheit Rudolstadt vs Oberlausitz Neugersdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
CANC
12:00
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
12/12/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 15Kunstrasenplatz Städtisches Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Einheit Rudolstadt51%
×Draw24%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.70
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.13

Einheit Rudolstadt creates 50% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 36 away

creates per match

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.51
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
0.92

allows per match

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.34
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.89

finishing

Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Rudolstadt ↓

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Einheit Rudolstadt or draw
75%
Einheit Rudolstadt or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
76%
Draw or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
49%

Winning margin

Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
27%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
82%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
51%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
24%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
68%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
31%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
67%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Rudolstadt at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.89 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.51 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.70

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 0.92 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
51%
level
24%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
25%

Einheit Rudolstadt at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Einheit Rudolstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Einheit Rudolstadt vs Oberlausitz Neugersdorf — Match Preview

Einheit Rudolstadt face Oberlausitz Neugersdorf on December 12, 2020 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Süd fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Einheit Rudolstadt host Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at Kunstrasenplatz Städtisches Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.