Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Einheit Rudolstadt vs Einheit Wernigerode — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
11/23/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 13Stadtisches Stadion im Heinepark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Einheit Rudolstadt49%
×Draw23%
Einheit Wernigerode28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.86
Einheit Wernigerode
1.36

Einheit Rudolstadt creates 37% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 77 away

creates per match

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.51
Einheit Wernigerode
1.39

allows per match

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.34
Einheit Wernigerode
2.21

finishing

Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par
Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Rudolstadt ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Einheit Rudolstadt or draw
72%
Einheit Rudolstadt or Einheit Wernigerode
77%
Draw or Einheit Wernigerode
51%

Winning margin

Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
27%
Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
84%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
55%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
28%
Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
74%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
39%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
64%
Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Rudolstadt at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.51 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.86

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
49%
level
23%
Einheit Wernigerode scores more
28%

Einheit Rudolstadt at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Einheit Rudolstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Einheit Rudolstadt vs Einheit Wernigerode

Einheit Rudolstadt beat Einheit Wernigerode 4-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadtisches Stadion im Heinepark in Rudolstadt.