Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Einheit Rudolstadt vs Carl Zeiss Jena II — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
CANC
12:00
Carl Zeiss Jena II
Carl Zeiss Jena II
5/2/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 29Stadtisches Stadion im Heinepark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Einheit Rudolstadt41%
×Draw23%
Carl Zeiss Jena II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.69
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 22 away

creates per match

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.51
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.77

allows per match

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.34
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.86

finishing

Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par
Carl Zeiss Jena II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Rudolstadt ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Einheit Rudolstadt or draw
64%
Einheit Rudolstadt or Carl Zeiss Jena II
77%
Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena II
59%

Winning margin

Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
21%
Carl Zeiss Jena II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
82%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
50%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
24%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 1+ goals
79%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 2+ goals
46%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
54%
Carl Zeiss Jena II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Rudolstadt at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.51 + Carl Zeiss Jena II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.69

Carl Zeiss Jena II attack 1.77 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
41%
level
23%
Carl Zeiss Jena II scores more
36%

Einheit Rudolstadt at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Einheit Rudolstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Einheit Rudolstadt vs Carl Zeiss Jena II — Match Preview

Einheit Rudolstadt face Carl Zeiss Jena II on May 2, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Süd fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Einheit Rudolstadt host Carl Zeiss Jena II at Stadtisches Stadion im Heinepark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.