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Einheit Rudolstadt vs An der Fahner Höhe — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
CANC
12:00
An der Fahner Höhe
An der Fahner Höhe
5/29/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 35Stadtisches Stadion im Heinepark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Einheit Rudolstadt47%
×Draw25%
An der Fahner Höhe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.60
An der Fahner Höhe
1.19

Einheit Rudolstadt creates 34% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 37 away

creates per match

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.51
An der Fahner Höhe
1.03

allows per match

Einheit Rudolstadt
1.34
An der Fahner Höhe
1.70

finishing

Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par
An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Rudolstadt ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Einheit Rudolstadt or draw
72%
Einheit Rudolstadt or An der Fahner Höhe
75%
Draw or An der Fahner Höhe
53%

Winning margin

Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
24%
An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
80%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
47%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
22%
An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals
70%
An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals
33%
An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
62%
An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Rudolstadt at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.51 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
47%
level
25%
An der Fahner Höhe scores more
28%

Einheit Rudolstadt at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Einheit Rudolstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Einheit Rudolstadt vs An der Fahner Höhe — Match Preview

Einheit Rudolstadt face An der Fahner Höhe on May 29, 2022 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Süd fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Einheit Rudolstadt host An der Fahner Höhe at Stadtisches Stadion im Heinepark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.