Eimsbütteler TV vs St. Pauli II — League #84 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Eimsbütteler TV28%
St. Pauli II52%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
St. Pauli II creates 37% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over76
- Under24
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes74
- No26
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Eimsbütteler TV ↓
Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Eimsbütteler TV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches
St. Pauli II away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Eimsbütteler TV attack 1.50 + St. Pauli II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.70
St. Pauli II attack 1.90 + Eimsbütteler TV defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
St. Pauli II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "St. Pauli II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
SV Drochtersen/Assel
SV Meppen
Phönix Lübeck
Kickers Emden
Bremer SV
VfB Oldenburg
HSC Hannover
Altona 93
Weiche Flensburg
Hamburger SV II
Hannover 96 II
Werder Bremen II
SSV Jeddeloh
Eintracht NorderstedtSt. Pauli II
VfB Lübeck
BW Lohne
SchöningenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Eimsbütteler TV host St. Pauli II on Sunday, 6 August 2023 at 12:00. The match is part of the League #84 2026/2027 season.
League #84: Eimsbütteler TV 1–4 St. Pauli II
St. Pauli II beat Eimsbütteler TV 4-1 in League #84 on August 6, 2023.
Goals: M. Boakye (22'), B. Winter (30', 66'), P. Mahncke (52'), R. Müller (83').
The match was played at Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage in Hamburg.