Eimsbütteler TV U19 1–2 St. Pauli U19

Eimsbütteler TV U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

St. Pauli U19

N. Gumpert 35' (pen)

J. Seven 47'

F. Roggow 45+2' (pen)

9/26/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 2Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eimsbütteler TV U1930%

×Draw22%

St. Pauli U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eimsbütteler TV U19Expected goals in this matchSt. Pauli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

2.02

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.55

St. Pauli U19

2.02

St. Pauli U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 76 away

1.00

creates per match

2.05

2.00

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.00

St. Pauli U19

2.05

allows per match

Eimsbütteler TV U19

2.00

St. Pauli U19

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eimsbütteler TV U19+0.00on par

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eimsbütteler TV U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Eimsbütteler TV U19 or draw

51%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 or St. Pauli U19

78%

Draw or St. Pauli U19

70%

Winning margin

Eimsbütteler TV U19 wins by 2+

14%

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Eimsbütteler TV U19 1+ goals

79%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 2+ goals

46%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 3+ goals

20%

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

87%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

60%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Eimsbütteler TV U19 (draw refunded)

38%

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eimsbütteler TV U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.05, concedes 2.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eimsbütteler TV U19 attack 1.00 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.55

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.05 + Eimsbütteler TV U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eimsbütteler TV U19 scores more

30%

level

22%

St. Pauli U19 scores more

49%

St. Pauli U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

N. GumpertPenalty

45+2'

F. RoggowPenalty

46'

F. Neubert← P. Mahncke

47'

J. Seven

57'

D. Abdullatif← T. Schröder

68'

A. Saibou← F. Bulut

78'

D. Berendsohn← J. Kafka

82'

V. Fazlija← M. Stuhlmacher

90'

M. Grosche← C. Grünewald

Eimsbütteler

St.

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Nabaoui

46'▲F. Neubert←▼P. Mahncke

57'▲D. Abdullatif←▼T. Schröder

68'▲A. Saibou←▼F. Bulut

78'▲D. Berendsohn←▼J. Kafka

Eimsbütteler TV U19 substitutes

NeubertAbdullatifSaibouBerendsohnFilimonovHanewinkelKieldyk

Manager: M. Schlichtkrull

82'▲V. Fazlija←▼M. Stuhlmacher

90'▲M. Grosche←▼C. Grünewald

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

FazlijaGroscheAkameBozSteigerBuhr

U19 Bundesliga: Eimsbütteler TV U19 1–2 St. Pauli U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Eimsbütteler TV U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 26, 2020.

Goals: N. Gumpert (35' pen), F. Roggow (45+2' pen), J. Seven (47').

The match was played at Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage in Hamburg.

Eimsbütteler TV U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Eimsbütteler TV U19 1–2 St. Pauli U19