Scoreo

Eimsbütteler TV U19 vs Hannover 96 U19U19 Bundesliga 2019

J. Luyeye-Nkula 65' (pen)
L. Dominke 49'
4/30/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 19Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eimsbütteler TV U1927%
×Draw22%
Hannover 96 U1952%
Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eimsbütteler TV U19
1.41
Hannover 96 U19
2.04

Hannover 96 U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 74 away

creates per match

Eimsbütteler TV U19
1.00
Hannover 96 U19
2.07

allows per match

Eimsbütteler TV U19
2.00
Hannover 96 U19
1.81

finishing

Eimsbütteler TV U19+0.00on par
Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eimsbütteler TV U19

Hannover 96 U19
0
1
2
3
4
0
003%
017%
027%
035%
042%
1
105%
119%
129%
136%
143%
2
203%
216%
227%
234%
242%
3
301%
313%
323%
332%
341%
4
401%
411%
421%
431%
440%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Eimsbütteler TV U19 or draw
48%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 or Hannover 96 U19
78%
Draw or Hannover 96 U19
73%

Winning margin

Eimsbütteler TV U19 wins by 2+
12%
Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Eimsbütteler TV U19 1+ goals
76%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 2+ goals
41%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 3+ goals
17%
Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals
87%
Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals
60%
Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Eimsbütteler TV U19 (draw refunded)
34%
Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eimsbütteler TV U19 at homecreates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Hannover 96 U19 awaycreates 2.07, concedes 1.81 · 74 matches

Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eimsbütteler TV U19 attack 1.00 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.07 + Eimsbütteler TV U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eimsbütteler TV U19 scores more
27%
level
22%
Hannover 96 U19 scores more
52%

Hannover 96 U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Eimsbütteler
Hannover
P. Nabaoui
Manager: P. Nabaoui
46'A. TahirsylajM. Ajruli
63'J. AgyemangF. Bulut
63'L. SendzikS. Siegfried
71'B. FedkenhauerN. Leptien
S. Schmidt
Manager: S. Schmidt
16'M. DammeierK. Brandt
63'J. Luyeye-NkulaN. Meier
71'H. ŠejtoA. Becker
84'M. RauF. Henze

U19 Bundesliga: Eimsbütteler TV U19 0–4 Hannover 96 U19

Hannover 96 U19 beat Eimsbütteler TV U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 30, 2022.

Goals: M. Dammeier (41'), L. Dominke (49'), N. Tresoldi (53'), J. Luyeye-Nkula (65' pen).

The match was played at Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage in Hamburg.