Eimsbütteler TV U19 1–2 Hallescher FC U19

Eimsbütteler TV U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hallescher FC U19

N. Leptien 65'

T. Koch 81' (pen), 70'

4/14/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 13Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eimsbütteler TV U1941%

×Draw23%

Hallescher FC U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eimsbütteler TV U19Expected goals in this matchHallescher FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.62

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.75

Hallescher FC U19

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 37 away

1.00

creates per match

1.24

2.00

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.00

Hallescher FC U19

1.24

allows per match

Eimsbütteler TV U19

2.00

Hallescher FC U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eimsbütteler TV U19+0.00on par

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eimsbütteler TV U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Eimsbütteler TV U19 or draw

64%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 or Hallescher FC U19

77%

Draw or Hallescher FC U19

59%

Winning margin

Eimsbütteler TV U19 wins by 2+

22%

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Eimsbütteler TV U19 1+ goals

83%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 2+ goals

52%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 3+ goals

25%

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

80%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

48%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Eimsbütteler TV U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eimsbütteler TV U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eimsbütteler TV U19 attack 1.00 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Eimsbütteler TV U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eimsbütteler TV U19 scores more

41%

level

23%

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

36%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eimsbütteler TV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

L. Sendzik← M. Marie

46'

T. Boakye← A. Tahirsylaj

64'

T. Koczulap← D. Keller

65'

N. Leptien

70'

T. Koch

76'

N. Höfer← A. Rühlemann

81'

S. Siegfried← A. Sulejmani

81'

T. KochPenalty

88'

M. Ajruli← F. Bulut

90+4'

B. Necke← M. Hennig

Eimsbütteler

Hallescher

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: P. Nabaoui

39'▲L. Sendzik←▼M. Marie

46'▲T. Boakye←▼A. Tahirsylaj

81'▲S. Siegfried←▼A. Sulejmani

88'▲M. Ajruli←▼F. Bulut

Eimsbütteler TV U19 substitutes

SendzikBoakyeSiegfriedAjruliFedkenhauerAgyemangNiemann

Manager: M. Buszkowiak

64'▲T. Koczulap←▼D. Keller

76'▲N. Höfer←▼A. Rühlemann

90+4'▲B. Necke←▼M. Hennig

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

KoczulapHöferNeckeFesslerKhalilHaenschZorn