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Eilendorf vs Frechen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eilendorf
Eilendorf
FT
0 – 2
Frechen
Frechen
8/29/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 4Rasenplatz Halfenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Eilendorf31%
×Draw24%
Frechen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilendorf
1.34
Frechen
1.69

Frechen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 81 away

creates per match

Eilendorf
1.20
Frechen
1.68

allows per match

Eilendorf
1.70
Frechen
1.49

finishing

Eilendorf+0.00on par
Frechen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilendorf ↓

Frechen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eilendorf or draw
54%
Eilendorf or Frechen
76%
Draw or Frechen
69%

Winning margin

Eilendorf wins by 2+
13%
Frechen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Eilendorf 1+ goals
74%
Eilendorf 2+ goals
39%
Eilendorf 3+ goals
15%
Frechen 1+ goals
82%
Frechen 2+ goals
50%
Frechen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Eilendorf (draw refunded)
40%
Frechen (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilendorf at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Frechen away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.49 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilendorf attack 1.20 + Frechen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Frechen attack 1.68 + Eilendorf defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eilendorf scores more
31%
level
24%
Frechen scores more
46%

Frechen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Eilendorf 0–2 Frechen

Frechen beat Eilendorf 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Halfenstadion in Aachen.