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Eilendorf vs Düren Merzenich — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eilendorf
Eilendorf
CANC
13:00
Düren Merzenich
Düren Merzenich
5/2/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 26Rasenplatz Halfenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Eilendorf26%
×Draw23%
Düren Merzenich51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilendorf
1.27
Düren Merzenich
1.86

Düren Merzenich creates 46% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

Eilendorf
1.20
Düren Merzenich
2.03

allows per match

Eilendorf
1.70
Düren Merzenich
1.33

finishing

Eilendorf+0.00on par
Düren Merzenich+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilendorf ↓

Düren Merzenich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Eilendorf or draw
49%
Eilendorf or Düren Merzenich
77%
Draw or Düren Merzenich
74%

Winning margin

Eilendorf wins by 2+
11%
Düren Merzenich wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Eilendorf 1+ goals
72%
Eilendorf 2+ goals
36%
Eilendorf 3+ goals
14%
Düren Merzenich 1+ goals
84%
Düren Merzenich 2+ goals
55%
Düren Merzenich 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Eilendorf (draw refunded)
34%
Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilendorf at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Düren Merzenich away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilendorf attack 1.20 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Düren Merzenich attack 2.03 + Eilendorf defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eilendorf scores more
26%
level
23%
Düren Merzenich scores more
51%

Düren Merzenich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Düren Merzenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eilendorf vs Düren Merzenich — Match Preview

Eilendorf face Düren Merzenich on May 2, 2021 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eilendorf host Düren Merzenich at Rasenplatz Halfenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.