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Eilendorf vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eilendorf
Eilendorf
CANC
13:30
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
11/15/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 10Rasenplatz Halfenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Eilendorf38%
×Draw23%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilendorf
1.60
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 44 away

creates per match

Eilendorf
1.20
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

allows per match

Eilendorf
1.70
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.00

finishing

Eilendorf+0.00on par
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilendorf ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eilendorf or draw
62%
Eilendorf or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
77%
Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
62%

Winning margin

Eilendorf wins by 2+
19%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Eilendorf 1+ goals
80%
Eilendorf 2+ goals
47%
Eilendorf 3+ goals
22%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
80%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
47%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Eilendorf (draw refunded)
50%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilendorf at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilendorf attack 1.20 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Eilendorf defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eilendorf scores more
38%
level
23%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
38%

Eilendorf at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eilendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eilendorf vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Match Preview

Eilendorf face BCV Glesch / Paffendorf on November 15, 2020 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eilendorf host BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at Rasenplatz Halfenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.