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Eilenburg vs Westerhausen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Eilenburg
Eilenburg
FT
3 – 0
Westerhausen
Westerhausen
4/1/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 26Ilburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eilenburg73%
×Draw17%
Westerhausen10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilenburg
2.42
Westerhausen
0.79

Eilenburg creates 206% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eilenburg
2.24
Westerhausen
0.76

allows per match

Eilenburg
0.81
Westerhausen
2.59

finishing

Eilenburg+0.00on par
Westerhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilenburg ↓

Westerhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Eilenburg or draw
90%
Eilenburg or Westerhausen
83%
Draw or Westerhausen
27%

Winning margin

Eilenburg wins by 2+
50%
Westerhausen wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Eilenburg 1+ goals
91%
Eilenburg 2+ goals
69%
Eilenburg 3+ goals
43%
Westerhausen 1+ goals
55%
Westerhausen 2+ goals
19%
Westerhausen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Eilenburg (draw refunded)
88%
Westerhausen (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilenburg at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Westerhausen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilenburg attack 2.24 + Westerhausen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.42

Westerhausen attack 0.76 + Eilenburg defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Eilenburg scores more
73%
level
17%
Westerhausen scores more
10%

Eilenburg at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Eilenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Eilenburg 3–0 Westerhausen

Eilenburg beat Westerhausen 3-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Ilburg-Stadion in Eilenburg.