Eilenburg 2–2 Wacker Nordhausen: Result & Stats

Eilenburg

FT

2 – 2

Wacker Nordhausen

10/24/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 9Ilburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Eilenburg67%

×Draw19%

Wacker Nordhausen14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EilenburgExpected goals in this matchWacker Nordhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.92

Eilenburg

2.22

Wacker Nordhausen

0.92

Eilenburg creates 141% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 35 away

2.24

creates per match

1.03

0.81

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Eilenburg

2.24

Wacker Nordhausen

1.03

allows per match

Eilenburg

0.81

Wacker Nordhausen

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eilenburg+0.00on par

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilenburg ↓

Wacker Nordhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Eilenburg or draw

86%

Eilenburg or Wacker Nordhausen

81%

Draw or Wacker Nordhausen

33%

Winning margin

Eilenburg wins by 2+

43%

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Eilenburg 1+ goals

89%

Eilenburg 2+ goals

65%

Eilenburg 3+ goals

38%

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals

60%

Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals

23%

Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Eilenburg (draw refunded)

82%

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilenburg at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Wacker Nordhausen away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilenburg attack 2.24 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.22

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.03 + Eilenburg defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Eilenburg scores more

67%

level

19%

Wacker Nordhausen scores more

14%

Eilenburg at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Eilenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff