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Eilenburg vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Eilenburg
Eilenburg
CANC
13:00
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
3/21/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 24Ilburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Eilenburg65%
×Draw20%
Ludwigsfelde15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilenburg
2.10
Ludwigsfelde
0.89

Eilenburg creates 136% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 50 away

creates per match

Eilenburg
2.24
Ludwigsfelde
0.96

allows per match

Eilenburg
0.81
Ludwigsfelde
1.96

finishing

Eilenburg+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilenburg ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eilenburg or draw
85%
Eilenburg or Ludwigsfelde
80%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
35%

Winning margin

Eilenburg wins by 2+
41%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Eilenburg 1+ goals
88%
Eilenburg 2+ goals
62%
Eilenburg 3+ goals
35%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
59%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
22%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eilenburg (draw refunded)
81%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilenburg at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilenburg attack 2.24 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.10

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + Eilenburg defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Eilenburg scores more
65%
level
20%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
15%

Eilenburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Eilenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eilenburg face Ludwigsfelde (Oberliga - Nordost-Süd)

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd returns with Eilenburg hosting Ludwigsfelde. Match starts March 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Eilenburg host Ludwigsfelde at Ilburg-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.