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Eilenburg vs Germania Halberstadt — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Eilenburg
Eilenburg
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Germania Halberstadt
Germania Halberstadt
1/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eilenburg58%
×Draw19%
Germania Halberstadt23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilenburg
2.52
Germania Halberstadt
1.57

Eilenburg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Eilenburg
1.33
Germania Halberstadt
1.14

allows per match

Eilenburg
2.00
Germania Halberstadt
3.71

finishing

Eilenburg+0.00on par
Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilenburg ↓

Germania Halberstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Eilenburg or draw
77%
Eilenburg or Germania Halberstadt
81%
Draw or Germania Halberstadt
42%

Winning margin

Eilenburg wins by 2+
37%
Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Eilenburg 1+ goals
92%
Eilenburg 2+ goals
71%
Eilenburg 3+ goals
45%
Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals
79%
Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals
46%
Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eilenburg (draw refunded)
71%
Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilenburg at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Germania Halberstadt away — creates 1.14, concedes 3.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilenburg attack 1.33 + Germania Halberstadt defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.52

Germania Halberstadt attack 1.14 + Eilenburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eilenburg scores more
58%
level
19%
Germania Halberstadt scores more
23%

Eilenburg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eilenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eilenburg vs Germania Halberstadt

Eilenburg beat Germania Halberstadt 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2026.