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Eilenburg vs Budissa Bautzen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Eilenburg
Eilenburg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
5/20/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 32Ilburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Eilenburg57%
×Draw20%
Budissa Bautzen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilenburg
2.18
Budissa Bautzen
1.29

Eilenburg creates 69% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 77 away

creates per match

Eilenburg
2.24
Budissa Bautzen
1.78

allows per match

Eilenburg
0.81
Budissa Bautzen
2.12

finishing

Eilenburg+0.00on par
Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilenburg ↓

Budissa Bautzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Eilenburg or draw
78%
Eilenburg or Budissa Bautzen
80%
Draw or Budissa Bautzen
43%

Winning margin

Eilenburg wins by 2+
35%
Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eilenburg 1+ goals
89%
Eilenburg 2+ goals
64%
Eilenburg 3+ goals
37%
Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
72%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
37%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eilenburg (draw refunded)
72%
Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilenburg at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilenburg attack 2.24 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.18

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Eilenburg defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Eilenburg scores more
57%
level
20%
Budissa Bautzen scores more
22%

Eilenburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Eilenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eilenburg vs Budissa Bautzen

Budissa Bautzen beat Eilenburg 4-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Ilburg-Stadion in Eilenburg.