Eilenburg 3–1 Blau-Weiß Zorbau: Result & Stats

Eilenburg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

4/21/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28Ilburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Eilenburg64%

×Draw19%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EilenburgExpected goals in this matchBlau-Weiß Zorbau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.08

Eilenburg

2.27

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.08

Eilenburg creates 110% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 53 away

2.24

creates per match

1.36

0.81

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Eilenburg

2.24

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.36

allows per match

Eilenburg

0.81

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eilenburg+0.00on par

Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilenburg ↓

Blau-Weiß Zorbau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Eilenburg or draw

83%

Eilenburg or Blau-Weiß Zorbau

81%

Draw or Blau-Weiß Zorbau

36%

Winning margin

Eilenburg wins by 2+

41%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Eilenburg 1+ goals

90%

Eilenburg 2+ goals

66%

Eilenburg 3+ goals

39%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals

66%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals

29%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Eilenburg (draw refunded)

79%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilenburg at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilenburg attack 2.24 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.27

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.36 + Eilenburg defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Eilenburg scores more

64%

level

19%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more

17%

Eilenburg at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Eilenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff