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Eilenburg vs An der Fahner Höhe — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Eilenburg
Eilenburg
CANC
12:00
An der Fahner Höhe
An der Fahner Höhe
2/7/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 18Ilburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Eilenburg62%
×Draw21%
An der Fahner Höhe17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilenburg
1.97
An der Fahner Höhe
0.92

Eilenburg creates 114% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 37 away

creates per match

Eilenburg
2.24
An der Fahner Höhe
1.03

allows per match

Eilenburg
0.81
An der Fahner Höhe
1.70

finishing

Eilenburg+0.00on par
An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilenburg ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eilenburg or draw
83%
Eilenburg or An der Fahner Höhe
79%
Draw or An der Fahner Höhe
38%

Winning margin

Eilenburg wins by 2+
37%
An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eilenburg 1+ goals
86%
Eilenburg 2+ goals
58%
Eilenburg 3+ goals
31%
An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals
60%
An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals
23%
An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eilenburg (draw refunded)
78%
An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilenburg at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilenburg attack 2.24 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.97

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + Eilenburg defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Eilenburg scores more
62%
level
21%
An der Fahner Höhe scores more
17%

Eilenburg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Eilenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eilenburg vs An der Fahner Höhe — Match Preview

Eilenburg face An der Fahner Höhe on February 7, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Süd fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eilenburg host An der Fahner Höhe at Ilburg-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.