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Eilenburg vs 1. FC Merseburg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Eilenburg
Eilenburg
CANC
12:00
1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
5/2/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 29Ilburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Eilenburg82%
×Draw13%
1. FC Merseburg6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilenburg
2.75
1. FC Merseburg
0.61

Eilenburg creates 351% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

creates per match

Eilenburg
2.24
1. FC Merseburg
0.42

allows per match

Eilenburg
0.81
1. FC Merseburg
3.25

finishing

Eilenburg+0.00on par
1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilenburg ↓

1. FC Merseburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eilenburg or draw
94%
Eilenburg or 1. FC Merseburg
87%
Draw or 1. FC Merseburg
18%

Winning margin

Eilenburg wins by 2+
61%
1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Eilenburg 1+ goals
93%
Eilenburg 2+ goals
75%
Eilenburg 3+ goals
51%
1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
46%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
13%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Eilenburg (draw refunded)
93%
1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilenburg at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

1. FC Merseburg away — creates 0.42, concedes 3.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilenburg attack 2.24 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.75

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.42 + Eilenburg defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Eilenburg scores more
82%
level
13%
1. FC Merseburg scores more
6%

Eilenburg at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Eilenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eilenburg host 1. FC Merseburg

May 2, 2021: Eilenburg take on 1. FC Merseburg in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Eilenburg host 1. FC Merseburg at Ilburg-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.