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Eik-Tønsberg vs Urædd — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Eik-Tønsberg
Eik-Tønsberg
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Urædd
Urædd
6/18/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 11Tønsberg Gressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Eik-Tønsberg79%
×Draw13%
Urædd8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eik-Tønsberg
2.96
Urædd
0.84

Eik-Tønsberg creates 252% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Eik-Tønsberg
3.00
Urædd
1.00

allows per match

Eik-Tønsberg
0.69
Urædd
2.92

finishing

Eik-Tønsberg+0.00on par
Urædd+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eik-Tønsberg ↓

Urædd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Eik-Tønsberg or draw
92%
Eik-Tønsberg or Urædd
87%
Draw or Urædd
21%

Winning margin

Eik-Tønsberg wins by 2+
60%
Urædd wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Eik-Tønsberg 1+ goals
95%
Eik-Tønsberg 2+ goals
79%
Eik-Tønsberg 3+ goals
55%
Urædd 1+ goals
57%
Urædd 2+ goals
21%
Urædd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Eik-Tønsberg (draw refunded)
91%
Urædd (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eik-Tønsberg at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

Urædd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eik-Tønsberg attack 3.00 + Urædd defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.96

Urædd attack 1.00 + Eik-Tønsberg defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Eik-Tønsberg scores more
79%
level
13%
Urædd scores more
8%

Eik-Tønsberg at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Eik-Tønsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eik-Tønsberg vs Urædd

Eik-Tønsberg beat Urædd 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Tønsberg Gressbane in Tønsberg.