Eik-Tønsberg 1–1 Pors Grenland: Result & Stats

Eik-Tønsberg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pors Grenland

10/7/2023

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 23Tønsberg Gressbane KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eik-Tønsberg48%

×Draw21%

Pors Grenland31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eik-TønsbergExpected goals in this matchPors Grenland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.75

Eik-Tønsberg

2.19

Pors Grenland

1.75

Eik-Tønsberg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

3.00

creates per match

2.81

0.69

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Eik-Tønsberg

3.00

Pors Grenland

2.81

allows per match

Eik-Tønsberg

0.69

Pors Grenland

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eik-Tønsberg+0.00on par

Pors Grenland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eik-Tønsberg ↓

Pors Grenland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Eik-Tønsberg or draw

69%

Eik-Tønsberg or Pors Grenland

79%

Draw or Pors Grenland

52%

Winning margin

Eik-Tønsberg wins by 2+

28%

Pors Grenland wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Eik-Tønsberg 1+ goals

89%

Eik-Tønsberg 2+ goals

64%

Eik-Tønsberg 3+ goals

37%

Pors Grenland 1+ goals

83%

Pors Grenland 2+ goals

52%

Pors Grenland 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Eik-Tønsberg (draw refunded)

60%

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eik-Tønsberg at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

Pors Grenland away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eik-Tønsberg attack 3.00 + Pors Grenland defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Pors Grenland attack 2.81 + Eik-Tønsberg defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eik-Tønsberg scores more

48%

level

21%

Pors Grenland scores more

31%

Eik-Tønsberg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eik-Tønsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff