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Eik-Tønsberg vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Eik-Tønsberg
Eik-Tønsberg
FT
3 – 0
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
6/3/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 8Tønsberg Gressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Eik-Tønsberg77%
×Draw14%
Mjøndalen II9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eik-Tønsberg
2.88
Mjøndalen II
0.89

Eik-Tønsberg creates 224% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Eik-Tønsberg
3.00
Mjøndalen II
1.08

allows per match

Eik-Tønsberg
0.69
Mjøndalen II
2.77

finishing

Eik-Tønsberg+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eik-Tønsberg ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Eik-Tønsberg or draw
91%
Eik-Tønsberg or Mjøndalen II
86%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
23%

Winning margin

Eik-Tønsberg wins by 2+
57%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Eik-Tønsberg 1+ goals
94%
Eik-Tønsberg 2+ goals
78%
Eik-Tønsberg 3+ goals
54%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
59%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
22%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eik-Tønsberg (draw refunded)
90%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eik-Tønsberg at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eik-Tønsberg attack 3.00 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.88

Mjøndalen II attack 1.08 + Eik-Tønsberg defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Eik-Tønsberg scores more
77%
level
14%
Mjøndalen II scores more
9%

Eik-Tønsberg at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Eik-Tønsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eik-Tønsberg vs Mjøndalen II

Eik-Tønsberg beat Mjøndalen II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Tønsberg Gressbane in Tønsberg.