Eik-Tønsberg 2–0 Halsen: Result & Stats

Eik-Tønsberg

FT

2 – 0

Halsen

8/7/2021

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 1Tønsberg Gressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eik-Tønsberg80%

×Draw12%

Halsen8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eik-TønsbergExpected goals in this matchHalsen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

1.00

Eik-Tønsberg

3.25

Halsen

1.00

Eik-Tønsberg creates 225% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Eik-Tønsberg

2.50

Halsen

1.00

allows per match

Eik-Tønsberg

1.00

Halsen

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eik-Tønsberg+0.00on par

Halsen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eik-Tønsberg ↓

Halsen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Eik-Tønsberg or draw

92%

Eik-Tønsberg or Halsen

88%

Draw or Halsen

20%

Winning margin

Eik-Tønsberg wins by 2+

61%

Halsen wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Eik-Tønsberg 1+ goals

96%

Eik-Tønsberg 2+ goals

83%

Eik-Tønsberg 3+ goals

61%

Halsen 1+ goals

63%

Halsen 2+ goals

26%

Halsen 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Eik-Tønsberg (draw refunded)

91%

Halsen (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eik-Tønsberg at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Halsen away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eik-Tønsberg attack 2.50 + Halsen defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Halsen attack 1.00 + Eik-Tønsberg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Eik-Tønsberg scores more

80%

level

12%

Halsen scores more

8%

Eik-Tønsberg at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Eik-Tønsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff